Ablation report
Component-removal study on the catastrophic scenario (N = 10 seeds per variant). Δ columns are relative to the full MAS.
| Variant | N | Stockout | Δ vs full | Total cost | Δ vs full | MAPE | Global drift |
|---|
Reading the table: under the adversarial catastrophic scenario every individual ablation improves both stockout rate and total cost relative to the full MAS. The mechanism is documented in thesis §5.3 — the Holt–Winters forecaster captures the genuine transient volatility, inflating z·σ·√LT and driving over-provisioning. Bounded safety stock (capping the buffer at a multiple of mean lead-time demand) is the fix queued as future work.